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chltrends.html
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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="" xml:lang="">
<head>
<title>Hydrology and chlorophyll trends in Tampa Bay: Alternative modelling approaches</title>
<meta charset="utf-8" />
<meta name="author" content="Dr. Marcus Beck \bullet @fawda123 \bullet #TampaBayOpensci" />
<meta name="date" content="2020-10-16" />
<link href="libs/panelset-0.2.3.9000/panelset.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<script src="libs/panelset-0.2.3.9000/panelset.js"></script>
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<body>
<textarea id="source">
class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide
# Hydrology and chlorophyll trends in Tampa Bay: Alternative modelling approaches
### <a href="mailto:[email protected]">Dr. Marcus Beck</a> <span class="math inline">•</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/fawda123">@fawda123</a> <span class="math inline">•</span> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TampaBayOpenSci?src=hashtag_click">#TampaBayOpensci</a>
### Tampa Bay Estuary Program
### 10/16/2020
---
class: middle, center, inverse
# Our last discussion...
---
class: center, top
# Reporting requirements and products
<div class="container">
<div class="column-left"><img src="figure/decisionframework.png" width = "340"></img></div>
<div class="column-center"><img src="figure/wqstatic1.PNG" width = "340"></img></div>
<div class="column-right"><img src="figure/wqstatic2.PNG" width = "340"></img></div>
</div>
---
class: center, top
# Old Tampa Bay trends
<div id="htmlwidget-eda08b72b0656ee00ed2" style="width:100%;height:78%;" class="plotly html-widget"></div>
<script type="application/json" 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8.602956<br />","yr: 2002<br />yval: 7.825256<br />","yr: 2003<br />yval: 11.717812<br />","yr: 2004<br />yval: 11.810648<br />","yr: 2005<br />yval: 8.427619<br />","yr: 2006<br />yval: 6.281667<br />","yr: 2007<br />yval: 8.637778<br />","yr: 2008<br />yval: 9.271111<br />","yr: 2009<br />yval: 12.121111<br />","yr: 2010<br />yval: 7.442381<br />","yr: 2011<br />yval: 11.413333<br />","yr: 2012<br />yval: 7.830556<br />","yr: 2013<br />yval: 8.664444<br />","yr: 2014<br />yval: 7.862778<br />","yr: 2015<br />yval: 10.671111<br />","yr: 2016<br />yval: 8.986667<br />","yr: 2017<br />yval: 9.535556<br />","yr: 2018<br />yval: 9.216667<br />","yr: 2019<br />yval: 9.783889<br />"],"type":"scatter","mode":"markers+lines","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(255,0,0,1)","opacity":1,"size":11.3385826771654,"symbol":"circle","line":{"width":1.88976377952756,"color":"rgba(255,0,0,1)"}},"hoveron":"points","name":"Annual Mean","legendgroup":"Annual 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Outcome: 0, Exceedance: none (size), short (length)","type":"scatter","mode":"lines","line":{"width":0.377952755905512,"color":"rgba(0,0,0,1)","dash":"solid"},"fill":"toself","fillcolor":"rgba(0,255,0,1)","hoveron":"fills","name":"green","legendgroup":"green","showlegend":false,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y2","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"x":[2007.5,2008.5,2008.5,2007.5,2007.5,null,2015.5,2016.5,2016.5,2015.5,2015.5],"y":[2.5,2.5,3.5,3.5,2.5,null,2.5,2.5,3.5,3.5,2.5],"text":"Action: Outcome: 1, Exceedance: small (size), short 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---
class: center, top
# Baywide salinity averages
<img src="figure/allsal.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
---
class: center, top
# Conclusions from last time
## Long-term trends
* Overall, nutrients have decreased and seagrasses have recovered
## Concerning recent changes
* Recent increases in chlorophyll, increases in diatom density
* Temperature increase and salinity decrease in the past ten years
* HAB increases in some locations, possibly linked to temperature and salinity, also maybe linked to methodology changes
---
class: center, top
# Questions for today
## Role of hydrology
* Chlorophyll is linked to many factors, nutrients are first!
* Hydrology may be a confounding factor driving trends (e.g., compliance load adjustment factors)
## Seasonal differences
* Previously evaluated annual trends, as in the NMC action plan
* Seasonal differences are also important, i.e., when are exceedances happening and what's driving them?
---
class: center, top
# Hydrology and nutrient loads
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-4-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
---
class: center, top
# Salinity (hydrology surrogate) vs chlorophyll
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
---
class: center, top
# Explore alternative methods
* Use of Weighted Regression (WRTDS) to evaluate past trends ([Hirsch et al. 2010](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3307614/), [Beck and Hagy 2015](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10666-015-9452-8))
* Modelling chlorophyll as a function of time, discharge (flow), and season
`$$\Large \ln\left(Chl\right) = \beta_0 + \beta_1 time + \beta_2 Salinity + \beta_3 \sin\left(2\pi \cdot time\right) + \beta_4 \cos\left(2\pi\cdot time \right)$$`
--
* Ability to extract "flow-normalized" trend to remove hydrologic influence
---
class: center, top
# WRTDS method
.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[time]
<img src="figure/wrtds_pieces1.PNG" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.panel[.panel-name[salinity]
<img src="figure/wrtds_pieces2.PNG" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.panel[.panel-name[season]
<img src="figure/wrtds_pieces3.PNG" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.panel[.panel-name[time + salinity]
<img src="figure/wrtds_pieces4.PNG" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.panel[.panel-name[time + salinity + season]
<img src="figure/wrtds_pieces5.PNG" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
]
---
class: center, top
# Better predictions relative to time and flow
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/wrtds_prds-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
---
class: center, top
# Identify flow-normalized trends, annual averages
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/wrtds_nrms2-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
---
class: center, top
# Identify flow-normalized trends, complete data
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/wrtds_nrms1-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
---
class: middle, center
# How much of the trend can we explain with hydrology?
---
.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[OTB predictions and hydrology]
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.panel[.panel-name[OTB residuals vs anomalies]
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
]
---
## A simple regression model for anomalies
.pull-left[
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/annreg-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.pull-right[
### Since 2000, hydrology explains 46% of the annual variation in chlorophyll anomalies in OTB
<table style="border-collapse:collapse; border:none;">
<tr>
<th style="border-top: double; text-align:center; font-style:normal; font-weight:bold; padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; ">&nbsp;</th>
<th colspan="3" style="border-top: double; text-align:center; font-style:normal; font-weight:bold; padding:0.2cm; ">Chl anomalies</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; text-align:left; ">Predictors</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">Estimates</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">CI</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">p</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; ">(Intercept)</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">-0.04</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">-0.27&nbsp;&ndash;&nbsp;0.18</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.684</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; ">Hydro</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.00</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.00&nbsp;&ndash;&nbsp;0.00</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; "><strong>0.001</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; border-top:1px solid;">Observations</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; text-align:left; border-top:1px solid;" colspan="3">20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm;">R<sup>2</sup> / R<sup>2</sup> adjusted</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; text-align:left;" colspan="3">0.460 / 0.430</td>
</tr>
</table>
]
---
class: middle, center
# But there is seasonal variation...
---
class: top, center
# OTB chlorophyll by season
.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[2015]
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-17-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.panel[.panel-name[2017]
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.panel[.panel-name[2019]
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-19-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
]
---
.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[OTB predictions and hydrology]
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.panel[.panel-name[OTB residuals vs anomalies]
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-22-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
]
---
class: middle, center
# Same plots but arranged by quarter...
---
.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[OTB predictions and hydrology]
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-23-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.panel[.panel-name[OTB residuals vs anomalies]
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-24-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
]
---
.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[JFM]
.pull-left[
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/jfmreg-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.pull-right[
### Since 2000, hydrology explains 22% of the JFM variation in chlorophyll anomalies in OTB
<table style="border-collapse:collapse; border:none;">
<tr>
<th style="border-top: double; text-align:center; font-style:normal; font-weight:bold; padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; ">&nbsp;</th>
<th colspan="3" style="border-top: double; text-align:center; font-style:normal; font-weight:bold; padding:0.2cm; ">Chl anomalies</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; text-align:left; ">Predictors</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">Estimates</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">CI</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">p</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; ">(Intercept)</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">-0.08</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">-0.26&nbsp;&ndash;&nbsp;0.10</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.375</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; ">Hydro</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.01</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.00&nbsp;&ndash;&nbsp;0.01</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; "><strong>0.037</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; border-top:1px solid;">Observations</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; text-align:left; border-top:1px solid;" colspan="3">20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm;">R<sup>2</sup> / R<sup>2</sup> adjusted</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; text-align:left;" colspan="3">0.221 / 0.177</td>
</tr>
</table>
]
]
.panel[.panel-name[AMJ]
.pull-left[
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/amjreg-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.pull-right[
### Since 2000, hydrology explains 30% of the AMJ variation in chlorophyll anomalies in OTB
<table style="border-collapse:collapse; border:none;">
<tr>
<th style="border-top: double; text-align:center; font-style:normal; font-weight:bold; padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; ">&nbsp;</th>
<th colspan="3" style="border-top: double; text-align:center; font-style:normal; font-weight:bold; padding:0.2cm; ">Chl anomalies</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; text-align:left; ">Predictors</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">Estimates</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">CI</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">p</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; ">(Intercept)</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">-0.16</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">-0.30&nbsp;&ndash;&nbsp;-0.02</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; "><strong>0.031</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; ">Hydro</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.00</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.00&nbsp;&ndash;&nbsp;0.01</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; "><strong>0.012</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; border-top:1px solid;">Observations</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; text-align:left; border-top:1px solid;" colspan="3">20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm;">R<sup>2</sup> / R<sup>2</sup> adjusted</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; text-align:left;" colspan="3">0.301 / 0.262</td>
</tr>
</table>
]
]
.panel[.panel-name[JAS]
.pull-left[
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/jasreg-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.pull-right[
### Since 2000, hydrology explains 48% of the JAS variation in chlorophyll anomalies in OTB
<table style="border-collapse:collapse; border:none;">
<tr>
<th style="border-top: double; text-align:center; font-style:normal; font-weight:bold; padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; ">&nbsp;</th>
<th colspan="3" style="border-top: double; text-align:center; font-style:normal; font-weight:bold; padding:0.2cm; ">Chl anomalies</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; text-align:left; ">Predictors</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">Estimates</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">CI</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">p</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; ">(Intercept)</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.61</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">-0.24&nbsp;&ndash;&nbsp;1.46</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.151</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; ">Hydro</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.02</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.01&nbsp;&ndash;&nbsp;0.02</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; "><strong>0.001</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; border-top:1px solid;">Observations</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; text-align:left; border-top:1px solid;" colspan="3">20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm;">R<sup>2</sup> / R<sup>2</sup> adjusted</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; text-align:left;" colspan="3">0.482 / 0.453</td>
</tr>
</table>
]
]
.panel[.panel-name[OND]
.pull-left[
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/ondreg-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.pull-right[
### Since 2000, hydrology explains 0% of the OND variation in chlorophyll anomalies in OTB
<table style="border-collapse:collapse; border:none;">
<tr>
<th style="border-top: double; text-align:center; font-style:normal; font-weight:bold; padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; ">&nbsp;</th>
<th colspan="3" style="border-top: double; text-align:center; font-style:normal; font-weight:bold; padding:0.2cm; ">Chl anomalies</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; text-align:left; ">Predictors</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">Estimates</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">CI</td>
<td style=" text-align:center; border-bottom:1px solid; font-style:italic; font-weight:normal; ">p</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; ">(Intercept)</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.16</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">-0.47&nbsp;&ndash;&nbsp;0.80</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.594</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; ">Hydro</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.00</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">-0.01&nbsp;&ndash;&nbsp;0.02</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:center; ">0.783</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; border-top:1px solid;">Observations</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; text-align:left; border-top:1px solid;" colspan="3">20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; text-align:left; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm;">R<sup>2</sup> / R<sup>2</sup> adjusted</td>
<td style=" padding:0.2cm; text-align:left; vertical-align:top; padding-top:0.1cm; padding-bottom:0.1cm; text-align:left;" colspan="3">0.004 / -0.051</td>
</tr>
</table>
]
]
]
---
class: middle, center
# Another way to look at it...
---
class: top, center
# OTB salinity prediction surface from WRTDS
.panelset[
.panel[.panel-name[All months]
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-30-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
.panel[.panel-name[Wet season]
<img src="chltrends_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-31-1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
]
---
class: top, center
# Conclusions
* Chlorophyll is "high" at some places, at some times, and under certain conditions
--
* Explains 46% of the annual variation in the last twenty years in OTB
--
* Variation is better explained by hydrology during the summer months
--
* Must vulnerable is OTB, late summer, high flow/rain
--
* Analysis assumes link between hydrology, nutrients, chlorophyll... there may be other factors AND association does not equal causation
---
class: top, center
# What to do about it?
* Consider the most vulnerable locations/times/conditions, plan accordingly
--
* Are we evaluating climatic variation or extreme events?
--
* Mitigation/restoration activities, e.g., bio-remediation, enhanced circulation, SSO prevention, tidal trib inflows, etc.
--
* Follow-up analyses - what is specific role of hydrology with Pyro? Do spring time storms trigger bloom events? Can we link any of these changes to [seagrass](https://tbep-tech.github.io/tbeptools/articles/seagrasstransect.html)?
---
class: top, left
# Resources
.small[
* Hirsch et al. 2010. Weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season (WRTDS), with an
application to Chesapeake Bay river inputs. JAWRA, 46(5):857–880. [10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00482.x](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00482.x)
* Beck and Hagy, 2015. Adaptation of a weighted regression approach to evaluate water quality trends in an estuary. Env. Mod. Assess. 20:637-655. [10.1007/s10666-015-9452-8](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10666-015-9452-8)
* Beck 2020. WRTDStidal R package. https://github.com/fawda123/WRTDStidal v1.1.3. Zenodo. [10.5281/zenodo.4034843](http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4034843)
* Presentation: [link](https://tbep-tech.github.io/tbep-os-presentations/chltrends.html), [source](https://github.com/tbep-tech/tbep-os-presentations/blob/master/chltrends.Rmd)
]
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