How the Spread of COVID-19 Has Been Lowered by Quarantining

A report by Alec Barker on how quarantining and other protective measures have slowed the spread of COVID-19.

This project was created for PHY 299: Scientific Modeling & Data Analysis that was taught by Dr. Colin Campbell at the University of Mount Union.

Features

Running the provided code will produce four graphs:

• The daily confirmed cases.
• The daily confirmed cases compared to the SIR model values (zoomed in).
• The daily confirmed cases compared to the SIR model values (zoomed out).
• The SIR model daily values.

Additionally, some statistics will be printed to the console, including:

• Number of confirmed infected individuals for the latest date.
• Number of infected individuals for the latest date according to the SIR model.
• Total length of the pandemic before COVID-19 dies off (less than one infected individual) according to the SIR model.
• Total number of infected individuals during the entire pandemic according to the SIR model.
• Total number of individuals that never get infected during the entire pandemic according to the SIR model.
• Peak number of individuals infected during a single day and the date of the peak according to the SIR model.

Instructions

1. Install Matplotlib and SciPy.
2. Download the daily situation update from the ECDC website in CSV format.
3. Rename the CSV file as covid19_data and move it to the Data Files folder.
4. Run data_scraper.py.
5. Adjust data values in covid19_sir.py if needed.
6. Run covid19_sir.py.