Effects of historical land-use and land-cover change on the potential distribution of eastern Brazil mountaintop endemic species

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change, directly associated with habitat loss and degradation, is pointed to as the leading global driver of biodiversity decline. Terrestrial hotspots of endemic species often have faced greater habitat loss and degradation pressures than other terrestrial regions. This is the case of Espinhaço Range (ER), located in eastern Brazil and partially designated as UNESCO’s Biosphere Reserve in 2005, owing to its ecological, geomorphological and cultural relevance. Additionally, endemic mountaintop species are expected to experience more intense habitat loss and degradation impacts since they are less tolerant to rapid environmental changes. In this study – by integrating historical LULC data and ecological niche modelling – we aimed to unravel the LULC change dynamics that occurred in ER between 1985 and 2019 and assess its impacts on the potential distribution of 22 amphibian, 9 bird and 6 reptile endemic species. In addition, we sought to evaluate whether the Espinhaço Range Biosphere Reserve (RBSE) designation (in year 2005, Phase 1) caused any noticeable effect on both LULC change patterns and the potential distribution ranges of target species. Our results show that the ER underwent intense LULC change dynamics in the last 35 years, with farming and commercial forestry expansion as the primary drivers of native vegetation loss. The institution of the RBSE in 2005 did not change the increasing trajectories of forest plantations, urban-mining and farming areas, although it may have positively influenced a recent secondary forest recovery trend. Concerning the species’ potential distributions, niche models predicted that around one-third of the target species underwent potential habitat loss between 1985 and 2019 within the ER. Considering the evaluated groups, birds presented the most consistent and highest trend of habitat loss (up to -28.6% relative variation). Furthermore, the results show that species potential richness tends to aggregate in two hotspots located in the southern and northern parts of ER and suggest that potential biodiversity loss likely results from the combined effects of multiple LULC change processes. Substantial challenges lie ahead to ensure the long-term conservation of Espinhaço endemic fauna. The present study highlights the need for conservation strategies focused on biodiversity hotspots through adequate land-use planning and management. Additionally, it supports the expansion of RBSE towards the northern part of ER to improve the connectivity between the hotspots.

Keywords: LULC change, Biodiversity decline, Espinhaço Range, Espinhaço Range Biosphere Reserve, Endemic mountaintop species, Habitat loss, Ecological Niche Modelling, Hotspot.