This is a companion repository for the article titled "COVID-19 vaccine uptake in United States counties: geospatial vaccination patterns and trajectories towards herd immunity" by Pavel Chernyavskiy, Jeanita W. Richardson, and Sarah J. Ratcliffe. The authors are faculty members within the University of Virginia - School of Medicine (Department of Public Health Sciences). A pre-print of our article is located on medRxiv here: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.28.21257946. In this repository we will provide:
- updated versions of all figures using most recent vaccination data
- links to interactive and clickable versions of archived maps
This repository will be updated approximately once per week. The ARCHIVED versions of figures are stored with the as-of date (e.g., 05162021, 05232021) in the title.
Cumulative percentage of residents with at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by county and week, May 6, 2021 through July 30, 2021. Each panel is labelled using a two-letter US state abbreviation. Each point plotted represents data for a county at the end of a given week. Some overplotting may occur; this may lead to an appearance of darker colored points.
Estimated coefficients of time-fixed and time-varying US county effects from the selected spatio-temporal Beta regression model with a probit link, sorted by absolute magnitude. All covariates were centered and scaled prior to analysis.
Standardized time-averaged joint (spatial + unstructured) county effects (top) and standardized deviations from the typical trajectory per US county (bottom). Values > 0 indicate a county is over-performing expectations under the model; values < 0 indicate a county is under-performing expectations under the model. Diagonal hatch pattern indicates missing data.
The ARCHIVED version that matches our manuscript is stored here: Figure 3 top panel here and of the Figure 3 bottom panel here.
Because we have surpassed the prediction horizon for our original model, we will not be producing representative county trajectories (Figure 4) going forward. County predictions for the end of November 2021 are located below.
Forecasted percentage with at least one dose by US county for the week ending on November 28 (November 22 – 28) (top) and the estimated probability of herd immunity, i.e. Pr(prediction > 70%) (bottom). Diagonal hatch pattern indicates missing data.
The ARCHIVED version that matches our manuscript is stored here: Figure 5 top panel here where Pr(Herd immunity) is reported after clicking on a county.