COVID-19 SIR Forecast in Italy

Description

This is my forecast about COVID-19 disease in Italy

• The forecast is tuned by the last data of today and it'll update daily.
• The forecast is based on SIR epidemic model, a mathematical model to describe a spread of a disease in a population, where a I built the model and tuned the parameters to fit the current behavior of spread.
• The circle represents observed data coming from "data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard" and aligned with the one of Protezione Civile.
• The star represents the forecast predicted by the model.

Forecast

• The timeline starts at t=24/02/2020

22/03	23/03

24/03	25/03

26/03	27/03

28/03	29/03

30/03	31/03

01/04	02/04

03/04	04/04

05/04	06/04

07/04	08/04

09/04	10/04

From here we will show SIRD model and the Daily Increment

11/04	11/04

12/04	12/04

13/04	13/04

14/04	14/04

15/04	15/04

16/05	16/05

17/05	17/05

18/05	18/05