The price of uncertainty during COVID-19

A sensitivity analysis on an extended infection model using UQpy.

This project was developed for the course of Computational Statistics for the MSc. in Mathematical Engineering at Politecnico di Milano, A.Y. 2022/2023.

Table of contents

• Installation
• Analysis
• Final results
• Authors

Installation

Clone the repository

git clone https://github.com/teobucci/computational-statistics

Install the required packages using, for example, pip

pip install -r requirements.txt

Analysis

The repository contains different folders, which are explained here. The main files are:

• main.ipynb is the main Jupyter Notebook for the project, which contains all the analysis and is completely independent.
• local_extSIR.py is the mathematical implementation of the Extended SIR model used for this project.

Other directories and files are:

• UQpy is a folder which contains some helpful material for getting started with UQpy.
• Uncertainpy is a folder which contains old and failed experiments using Uncertainpy, indeed this project initially aimed at using such library.
• docs is a folder which contains the paper used in this project.
• figures is a folder which contains images embedded in the Jupyter Notebook.
• physics_models is a folder which contains Jupyter Notebooks of simple physics model to be using for experimenting with UQpy.

Final results

An exported PDF version of main.ipynb can be found here: main.pdf.

The final presentation can be found here: comp_stat_bucci_petruso.pdf.

Authors

• Teo Bucci (@teobucci)
• Flavia Petruso (@fl-hi1)